2/12/2010
Perspective
Is This the Beginning of the End, or the End of the Beginning?
Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning. Sir Winston Churchill, Speech, November 1942.
We don’t have anything looming as large as the outcome of World War II, I hope, but nonetheless, reading the economic tea leaves presents quite a challenge these days.
Do you think business is getting better, worse, or languishing in the same rut we’ve been stuck in?
10 Responses to Perspective
Actually, I think it’s more like we’re at a fork in the path: the high, hard road leads to a better future, but the low, and apparently easy road, leads to a washed-out bridge. The choice is ours.
Hi Brad, Churchill really had a way with words didn’t he. That little sentence is a great way to frame expectations for any endeavour: there’s light at the end of the tunnel but it’s a long way away and we’re gonna need to work hard to get there.
I’m not really one for business or economic predictions but that little line from Churchill pretty much sums up where we are if you asked me!
Robert, Our fate is in our own hands – that’s a healthy take on the situation. I like that perspective very much.
Paul, They don’t make politicians like Churchill anymore, do they? We could sure use him now.
I think there are always rough times ahead, that’s what makes us stronger. The trick is not letting fear keep us from either dealing with potential problems or pursuing opportunities. Churchill’s quote is perfect.
That being said, I do fear that your cartoon predicts the short term future of the stock market. And maybe treasuries. Oh, and the financial industry as a whole. And maybe that will feedback into manufacturing…. ‘scuse me. I’m going off to my happy place for a while to meditate. Back in a bit.
Fred, LOL. The market’s behavior in just the last few days reinforces the need for us to all have a happy place. Triple-digits gains and losses are unsettling. A foolish consistency may be the hobgoblin of little minds, but market inconsistency is a big honking gargoyle staring down your throat.
Brad, on your comment about the big market swings, something of the forest and trees is operative here. The “big ‘uns” look somewhat smaller if you step back a bit/aren’t quite so focused on the day-to-day swings. My sense is that we are still on a gradual path upward. Oh, there will be lots of flat spots and dips in the road but feel the growth cycle still has legs. If Wall Street, the executive branch and Congress would tone down their rhetoric a bit, the results could be startlingly good! The wise businessperson is much like the skilled quarterback, looking over the defense and taking what it gives you. Such a simple concept to espouse yet a real challenge to accomplish on a continuing basis!
Bill, you said a mouthful there, and you are exactly right. In the heat of battle, it’s hard to keep your cool and remind yourself that these raging swings are bumps, not the road itself. I imagine skilled poker players make excellent investors! Speaking of skilled quarterbacks, Mr. Brees and Mr. Manning put on quite an exhibition last Sunday, didn’t they? Here in Chicago, we’ve seen what happens when a quarterback doesn’t take what is given.
With regard to your earlier comment that got lost in my hosting shuffle, you had observed that there was a strong bias against print media from me and many of my commenters. Speaking for myself only, I plead guilty as charged. Perhaps that stems in part from my experience from the old days working my tail off on brochures that were obsolete three months after printing. (Part of the problem was the continual product innovation from suppliers such as your former company!)
With regard to the issue of windshield advertising, I don’t think my bias enters into it, for the simple reason that this sort of think irritated me long before there was such a thing as web marketing. The fact that you don’t object to this form of marketing may indicate that I’m going to far in condemning it. However, I’d be very surprised if a significant portion of the population shared your patience and receptivity. In a way, perhaps we’d all be better off if it did.
I suppose the low pay and sometimes brutal weather conditions experienced by those who physically distribute the handbills, whether for windshield placement or tucked in your front door – as is often the case in our neighborhood – softens my attitude a bit. Yesterday we had one placed in the storm door by a person simply seeking the opportunity to show she could clean our home better and less expensively than others. Well, we don’t use a service so no real opportunity for, in this case, her – but the tone of the printed handbill suggested to me how tough it is out there for many. Good not to lose sight of that…
Brad, I’ve struggled with this question. I would have to agree with Robert, we are at a crossroads and honestly think that’s part of the problem. Recovery is in the hands of each individual, not the government. We are going to have to make choices rather than waiting for some big sweeping solution. Reminds me of the bible’s declaration that every many must work out his own salvation, in this I believe we will all have to make choices. Those choices when combined can move us forward again or leave us stuck.
Hi Karen, I agree with you and Robert up to a point. Our government sets the ground rules and to a large degree influences the economic environment, along with other factors such as international events and politics. We’re never conducting business in a vacuum, although we do have a tremendous amount of freedom to succeed regardless of conditions. One thing is for sure. If you don’t believe in yourself, work hard, and make your own breaks, you’re not going to be successful no matter what the prevailing conditions may be.